Industrial Meat Supply Index (IMS) remained flat year on year (y-o-y) in January - December 2018. The index moved down by 0.3% y-o-y in December. Decrease of red meat supply (pork and beef) was offset by higher poultry supply (broiler and turkey).
IMS Index of poultry in January – December 2018 increased by 1% y-o-y. The index went up by 4% in December. Rosstat significantly cut its estimate of poultry production in Kursk region in December 2017. The index would have increased by 1% without this change. In our view (there is no official statistics for different species), turkey production was up last year and broiler production dynamics was stable or slightly negative.
IMS Index of pork in January – December 2018 decreased by 1% y-o-y. In December the index went down 4% y-o-y, driven mostly by: “high base effect” – high level of supply in 2017 and decrease of import due to the ban of Brazilian pork shipments. Pork and beef imports from Brazil to Russia were banned due to rampant use of meat growth stimulator ractopamine by some Brazilian producers. The import ban was cancelled on 01.11.2018 after Brazilian authorities had pledged to control the production more strictly. In December import of Brazilian meat was still insignificant.
IMS Index of beef in Jan-Nov 2018 was flat y-o-y. In December IMS beef Index fell by 8% y-o-y due to significant decline of import.